2012 Predictions

Just for fun — and in no particular order — here are some technology industry predictions for 2012.

  1. Microsoft (MSFT) stock will continue to flatline until there is a generational change in management and strategy.
  2. Windows 8 tablets will impress, will gain share but will be unable to dent the iPad’s dominant position.
  3. Windows 8 client will underwhelm in the enterprise as customers tire of client side upgrade cycles.
  4. Microsoft will — depending on 1 above — hand the Windows Phone 7 platform to Nokia and get out of the mobile phone OS business.
  5. Nokia has a chance of survival if it gets exclusive control over the Windows Phone platform. If not then Microsoft will have to double down and acquire Nokia.
  6. The recent earnings miss by Oracle (ORCL) is just the leading indicator of a greater decline to come driven by customer migrations to cloud, Software As A Service and other DB alternatives.
  7. SAP has reached saturation in the enterprise and will continue to be unsuccessful moving into the small and mid-sized market. Acquisitions will not help them grow.
  8. ARM will continue to eat Intel’s lunch in the mobile chip business and will make significant gains in the server segment.
  9. Intel will continue failing to make up in volume for what they are losing in margin — INTC stock will suffer accordingly.
  10. Google (GOOG) will continue to demonstrate that it is — as it always has been — a 'One Trick Search Pony' and the shine will come off its elevated valuation.

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