Just for fun – and in no particular order – here are some technology industry predictions for 2012.
- Microsoft (MSFT) stock will continue to flatline until there is a generational change in management and strategy.
- Windows 8 tablets will impress, will gain share but will be unable to dent the iPad’s dominant position.
- Windows 8 client will underwhelm in the enterprise as customers tire of client side upgrade cycles.
- Microsoft will – depending on 1 above – hand the Windows Phone 7 platform to Nokia and get out of the mobile phone OS business.
- Nokia has a chance of survival if it gets exclusive control over the Windows Phone platform. If not then Microsoft will have to double down and acquire Nokia.
- The recent earnings miss by Oracle (ORCL) is just the leading indicator of a greater decline to come driven by customer migrations to cloud, Software As A Service and other DB alternatives.
- SAP has reached saturation in the enterprise and will continue to be unsuccessful moving into the small and mid-sized market. Acquisitions will not help them grow.
- ARM will continue to eat Intel’s lunch in the mobile chip business and will make significant gains in the server segment.
- Intel will continue failing to make up in volume for what they are losing in margin – INTC stock will suffer accordingly.
- Google (GOOG) will continue to demonstrate that it is – as it always has been – a ‘One Trick Search Pony’ and the shine will come off its elevated valuation.